The US-Iran conflict has reached a critical stage. Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Supreme Leader, has officially assumed office. A hardliner with close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), he lost family members in multiple US and Israeli strikes. President Trump has explicitly called this appointment “unacceptable and unsustainable”, stressing that the war’s end will be determined jointly by the US and Israel. Iran has struck a defiant tone, vowing no negotiations as long as Western “aggression” continues, leaving no room for talks or compromise.

On the military front, the conflict has raged for a week. The US has declared “the war has only just begun” and is preparing to escalate airstrikes. US-Israeli coalition forces have launched massive air raids targeting Iran’s oil refineries, storage facilities, rocket-engine factories, long-range ballistic missile sites, and nuclear-related infrastructure. Iran has retaliated relentlessly, striking oil and energy targets in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, including the US Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB) in Saudi Arabia. Seven US service members have been killed in attacks in Saudi Arabia; the US has acknowledged more casualties are inevitable. The Pentagon has not ruled out deploying ground troops, with one core objective being to seize highly enriched uranium from deep inside Iranian nuclear facilities—a high-risk mission with no clear operational plan or timeline.

Energy and economic conditions are equally dire. The Strait of Hormuz is choked, major Gulf producers have cut output, and Brent crude has surged above $100 per barrel. Global oil and gas prices have spiked sharply, driving up US domestic inflation and living costs. Bahrain has declared force majeure in the energy sector, suspending contract performance and roiling markets. The IMF has issued a stark warning, urging policymakers to prepare for “unimaginable risks.”

International stances are deeply divided. Russia has reaffirmed its support for Iran. European allies remain cautious and reluctant to deepen involvement. Saudi Arabia, trying to stay neutral, has borne the brunt of Iranian attacks on its vulnerable energy infrastructure and issued a stern warning: continued strikes will escalate the conflict, and Iran will be the biggest loser. The US has ordered an evacuation of officials from Saudi Arabia, shifting from voluntary to mandatory departures; roughly 32,000 American citizens have been pulled out of the Middle East.

Domestic political divisions in the US are fierce. The Trump administration has sought to downplay rising oil prices, calling them “a small price to pay for security.” But congressional Democrats have strongly objected, criticizing the president for waging war without congressional authorization, with vague objectives, unclear victory criteria, and tens of billions in daily spending at the expense of domestic priorities—all amid massive unforeseen risks. US public support for the war was already low, and there is widespread skepticism over the stated justifications.

Additionally, international information channels like Voice of America have been severely weakened, with scores of Persian and Iranian-language journalists unemployed. The US has lost a critical avenue to convey accurate information to Iran, further complicating the information war.

Overall, this conflict is far from a short-term war and is likely to drag on. The US and Israel have divergent goals: Israel seeks regime change in Iran, while the US aims to degrade Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities. US domestic political support, oil price volatility, and other factors will directly shape the war’s trajectory.