2025年末亚洲LNG现货价格跌至五年同期低点, 中国进口商为什么仍持观望态度？

Asian LNG Spot Prices Hit a Five-Year Low for the Corresponding Period in Late 2025: Why Are Chinese Importers Still Adopting a Wait-and-See Stance?

近期，亚洲液化天然气（LNG）现货价格跌至五年同期最低点，报价下探至9.45美元/百万英热单位，折合吨价约3525元，这一价格水平与2020年同期持平。从市场规律来看，低价通常会刺激采购需求释放，但国内进口商却普遍保持观望，背后是供需结构、库存水平与市场预期等多重因素交织作用的结果。

Recently, the spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia has dropped to a five-year low for the corresponding period, falling to 9.45 U.S. dollars per million British thermal units (MMBtu), equivalent to about 3,525 yuan per ton. This price level is on par with that of the same period in 2020. According to general market rules, low prices usually stimulate the release of procurement demand, yet Chinese domestic importers have generally maintained a wait-and-see attitude. This phenomenon is the result of the interplay of multiple factors such as supply-demand structure, inventory levels and market expectations.

一、全球供需宽松压制价格上行动力

I. Loose Global Supply and Demand Suppress Price Upside Momentum

此轮LNG价格走低的核心驱动因素是全球供暖需求疲软。欧洲市场方面，除北欧、东欧部分区域外，大部分地区冬季气温偏暖，叠加储气库库存充足、前期进口规模较大，供暖端LNG消耗不及预期，市场采购意愿低迷。

The core driver behind this round of LNG price decline is the weak global heating demand. In the European market, except for some regions in Northern and Eastern Europe where temperatures have dropped significantly, most areas have experienced a winter as mild as autumn. Coupled with ample inventories in gas storage facilities and large-scale imports in the early stage, LNG consumption for heating fell short of expectations, resulting in sluggish market procurement willingness.

东北亚市场与欧洲形成共振，冬季气温同样高于常年水平，终端供暖需求不振。全球两大主力消费区域需求同时疲软，直接引发LNG市场供需格局宽松，价格进入“滑梯式”下行通道，市场呈现“卖方急于出货、买方持币观望”的分化态势。

The Northeast Asian market echoed the trend in Europe, with winter temperatures also higher than the annual average and weak terminal heating demand. The simultaneous weakness in demand in the world's two major consumer regions directly led to a loose supply-demand pattern in the LNG market, sending prices into a "steep downward spiral". The market presented a divergent trend where "sellers were eager to unload goods while buyers held cash and waited".

二、国内高库存与弱需求形成双重压制

II. Dual Suppression from High Domestic Inventories and Weak Demand

从国内市场基本面来看，接收站与工厂库存均处于高位，进一步抑制进口需求。据统计，当前全国主要LNG接收站库存率已接近75%，同比有所上升；工厂库存亦较去年同期增长约8%。与此同时，入冬后全国大部分地区未出现持续性低温天气，城燃补库需求较弱，内贸LNG价格持续承压，近期北方地区出厂价甚至创下十年新低。在此背景下，即使进口现货具备一定理论套利空间，多数接收站因罐容有限和出货放缓，短期内大规模增购意愿不强。

From the perspective of domestic market fundamentals, inventories at both receiving terminals and plants are at high levels, further curbing import demand. Statistics show that the inventory rate of major LNG receiving terminals nationwide has now approached 75%, up year-on-year; inventories at plants have also increased by about 8% compared with the same period last year. At the same time, most parts of the country have not experienced sustained low-temperature weather since the start of winter, resulting in weak demand for replenishing inventories in city gas sectors. Domestic LNG prices have been under continuous pressure, with ex-factory prices in northern regions even hitting a ten-year low recently. Against this backdrop, even though imported spot cargoes have certain theoretical arbitrage space, most receiving terminals have little willingness to increase purchases on a large scale in the short term due to limited storage capacity and slow shipment.

三、进口经济性与到货时机存在不确定性

III. Uncertainties in Import Economy and Arrival Timing

从贸易盈利性角度测算，当前国际现货价格与国内售价存在一定理论套利空间，但进口周期与市场需求节奏错配，导致实际操作风险较高。

From the perspective of trade profitability, there is a certain theoretical arbitrage space between current international spot prices and domestic selling prices. However, the mismatch between the import cycle and market demand rhythm leads to high risks in actual operations.

LNG海运存在明显的运输周期，现阶段下单采购，货物到港时间大概率在2026年1月。届时临近春节假期，国内工业企业陆续停工放假，物流运输效率下降，LNG终端需求进入季节性淡季，出货窗口收窄。若期间国内LNG价格进一步下行，进口贸易可能面临亏损风险，这也是进口商暂缓采购的重要考量。

LNG maritime transportation has a distinct shipping cycle. If procurement orders are placed at this stage, the goods are likely to arrive at the port in January 2026. By then, it will be close to the Spring Festival holiday, domestic industrial enterprises will successively suspend production for vacation, logistics and transportation efficiency will decline, terminal LNG demand will enter a seasonal off-season, and the shipment window will narrow. If domestic LNG prices decline further during this period, imported trade may face the risk of losses, which is also an important consideration for importers to postpone procurement.

四、后市展望：价格仍有下探可能，需求恢复是关键

IV. Market Outlook: Prices May Further Decline, Demand Recovery Holds the Key

短期来看，全球LNG供需宽松格局尚未发生实质性改变，现货价格存在进一步下探的可能，不排除跌破9美元/百万英热单位的可能性。长期维度下，有市场观点预测2026年国际LNG现货价格或将回落至7-8美元/百万英热单位区间。对于国内进口商而言，价格低位并非采购的核心决策依据，市场“解冻”的关键在于国内需求端的实质性回暖。只有当民用供暖需求因气温下降而提升、工业端复工复产带动LNG消耗增加，国内高库存压力得到缓解后，进口商才有可能大规模入市采购。在此之前，低价行情更多是一场“卖方主导的寂寞狂欢”，市场观望情绪或将持续。

In the short term, the loose global LNG supply-demand pattern has not undergone substantial changes. Spot prices are likely to fall further, and there is a possibility of breaking below 9 U.S. dollars per MMBtu. In the long run, some market views predict that the international LNG spot price may drop to the range of 7-8 U.S. dollars per MMBtu in 2026.

For Chinese domestic importers, low prices are not the core basis for procurement decisions. The key to market "thawing" lies in the substantial recovery of domestic demand. Only when civil heating demand rises due to temperature drops, and industrial resumption of production drives an increase in LNG consumption, alleviating the pressure of high domestic inventories, will importers be likely to enter the market for large-scale procurement. Before that, the low-price market is more like a "seller-led lonely carnival", and the wait-and-see sentiment in the market may continue.

结论

Conclusion

当前亚洲LNG现货价格虽已进入低位区间，但受制于国内高库存、弱需求以及春节前后季节性消费转淡的预期，中国进口商普遍采取观望态度。市场真正转向需等待供需结构的实质性改善，特别是国内气温走势与工业复苏进度。在多重不确定性交织的背景下，采购策略仍将以保守为主，低价环境下的补库窗口将取决于后续需求端的实际表现。

Although the current spot price of Asian LNG has entered a low range, constrained by high domestic inventories, weak demand and the expectation of seasonal consumption slowdown around the Spring Festival, Chinese importers have generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude. A real market turnaround needs to wait for substantial improvements in the supply-demand structure, especially the domestic temperature trend and the progress of industrial recovery. Against the backdrop of intertwined uncertainties, procurement strategies will remain conservative, and the inventory replenishment window in the low-price environment will depend on the actual performance of the demand side in the subsequent period.