全球经济与资产市场核心观点

Global Economic and Asset Market Core Views

• 2026年11月中期选举前，中美欧货币财政共振宽松，美联储价量齐宽，叠加关税冲击逐渐降级，全球经济有望企稳回暖

Before the mid-term elections in November 2026, the coordinated monetary and fiscal easing among China, the US and Europe, coupled with the Fed's simultaneous easing in both price and quantity and the gradual mitigation of tariff shocks, is expected to stabilize and recover the global economy.

• 美欧再工业化再武装化趋势性推升资源品、资本品需求，企业资本开支仍处于上行周期

The trend of re-industrialization and re-armament in the US and Europe will steadily drive up the demand for resources and capital goods, and corporate capital expenditure will remain in an upward cycle.

• 继续趋势性看空美元，趋势性看好中美股市、金银铜、美股科技&大工业、AI科技&受益于全球投资需求的资源品资本品

We maintain a structural bearish view on the US dollar, and structurally bullish on the Chinese and US stock markets, gold, silver, copper, US tech & heavy industry sectors, AI technology, as well as resources and capital goods that benefit from global investment demand.

• 预计美国未来一年降息100bps，26年Q1重启常态化扩表投放流动性

It is estimated that the US will cut interest rates by 100 basis points in the coming year, and resume regular balance sheet expansion to inject liquidity in Q1 2026.

• 降息后，长端美债利率易上难下，直到采取收益率曲线控制YCC压长端

After the interest rate cut, long-term US Treasury yields will tend to rise rather than fall until the implementation of Yield Curve Control (YCC) to suppress long-term yields.

• 全球资产泡沫将进入加速阶段，如何跟踪：黄灯与红灯

The global asset bubble will enter an acceleration phase. How to track it: Warning Signals and Red Flags.

• 全球水牛最大风险：油价

The biggest risk of the global liquidity-driven bull market: Oil prices.

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