中国MDI对美出口路在何方？

China’s MDI Exports to the U.S.: What’s Next?

中国对美国MDI出口量近期已近乎归零，核心原因在于美国对中国MDI的进口基本全面停摆。这一局面的导火索是2025年初美国应巴斯夫、陶氏等企业申请，对原产于中国的MDI发起反倾销调查。9月11日，美国商务部对该案作出反倾销肯定性初裁。事实上，早在调查期间，美国自中国进口MDI的规模已出现断崖式下滑。据中国海关统计，2025年上半年中国对美MDI出口量从2024年同期的15.3万吨骤降至2.68万吨，同比暴跌82.48%；初裁落地后，对美出口量几近归零。后续虽因中美关税政策延期实施出现小幅回升，但整体规模仍远低于去年同期水平。

China’s MDI exports to U.S. have nearly plummeted to zero, largely driven by the almost complete halt of U.S. imports of Chinese - made MDI. The trigger for this situation was the anti - dumping investigation launched by the U.S. against Chinese - origin MDI in early 2025 at the request of companies including BASF and Dow Inc. On September 11, the U.S. Department of Commerce made a positive preliminary determination on the anti - dumping case. In fact, even during the investigation period, the volume of MDI imported by the U.S. from China had already witnessed a precipitous decline. According to China Customs data, in the first half of 2025, China’s MDI exports to the U.S. plummeted from 153,000 tons in the same period of 2024 to 26,800 tons, registering a year - on - year nosedive of 82.48%; after the preliminary ruling was issued, exports to the U.S. dropped to almost zero. Although there was a slight rebound later due to the extension of Sino - U.S. tariff policies, the overall volume remained far below the level of the same period last year.

 值得注意的是，美国曾是中国MDI的核心出口市场，中国MDI占美国进口总量的50%—60%。这一变化对中美双方均造成显著冲击：美国为填补供应缺口，不得不增加自德国、比利时等国的进口，这直接导致其国内聚氨酯行业生产成本大幅攀升。

It is worth noting that the U.S. used to be a core export market for China’s MDI, with Chinese MDI accounting for 50% - 60% of the total U.S. MDI imports. This shift has exerted a significant impact on both China and the U.S.: to fill the supply gap, the U.S. has had to increase imports from Germany, Belgium and other countries, which has directly led to a sharp surge in production costs for its domestic polyurethane industry.

 美方此举背后存在双重考量：一方面是为重塑全球MDI贸易格局，另一方面则是通过构筑贸易壁垒遏制中国MDI产业的国际竞争力。不过，对中国MDI产业而言，当前的冲击更多是阶段性阵痛，行业已形成多重成熟应对路径：

 There are two key considerations behind the U.S. move. On one hand, it aims to reshape the global MDI trade pattern; on the other hand, it seeks to contain the international competitiveness of China’s MDI industry by erecting trade barriers. However, for China’s MDI industry, the current impact is more of a phased pain, and the industry has developed multiple mature response strategies:

 1. 市场多元化：加大对东南亚、中东等新兴市场的开拓力度，分散单一市场依赖风险；

1. Market Diversification: Step up efforts to explore emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East to mitigate the risks of over - reliance on a single market.

2. 产业链升级：向高附加值的MDI下游产品延伸（如高端聚氨酯材料、新能源配套制品等），提升产业抗风险能力；

2. Industrial Chain Upgrading: Extend to high - value - added downstream MDI products (e.g., high - end polyurethane materials and new energy - supporting products) to enhance the industry’s risk - resistance capacity.

3. 全球化布局：通过海外建厂等方式绕过贸易壁垒，实现生产与供应链的全球化布局。

3. Global Layout: Bypass trade barriers through overseas factory construction and other means to achieve the global layout of production and supply chains.

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