关税大战下的美国丙烷

U.S. Propane Under the Tariff War

在一场轰轰烈烈的关税大战硝烟之下，美国丙烷市场率先掀起价格震荡的波澜。其现货价格呈现断崖式下跌态势，而中国采购量的锐减，无疑是这场价格暴跌的关键导火索。作为全球第二大丙烷进口国，中国此前60%的丙烷采购量均来自美国市场。这一重要贸易通道的骤然收缩，迅速引发了一系列连锁反应。

Under the vigorous tariff war, the price of American propane was the first to experience fluctuations. The spot price of American propane plummeted in a cliff-like manner, mainly affected by the sharp reduction in China's procurement volume. China, as the world's second-largest propane importer, used to source 60% of its propane from the US market. The sudden contraction of this trade channel has triggered a series of chain reactions.

曾几何时，中美两国在液化石油气（LPG）贸易领域形成互补共赢的良好局面：美国凭借页岩气革命，实现丙烷产能成倍增长；而中国蓬勃发展的塑料制品产业，对原料丙烷产生了庞大的需求。双方贸易往来密切，月度贸易额一度高达10亿美元。然而，关税壁垒的横空出世，实质性切断了这条繁荣的贸易动脉。

There was a time when China and the U.S. enjoyed a complementary and mutually beneficial trade relationship in the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sector: the U.S., riding the wave of the shale gas revolution, saw its propane production capacity multiply, while China's booming plastics industry generated massive demand for propane feedstock. Trade between the two nations was robust, with monthly transactions once reaching as high as $1 billion. However, the sudden imposition of tariff barriers has effectively severed this thriving trade artery. 

据彭博社数据显示，从2019年到2024年，短短五年间，中国华东地区PDH产能从700万吨急剧攀升至2200万吨。但由于对美国丙烷原料的高度依赖，若按照125%的关税标准计算，中国PDH企业加工美国丙烷，每吨将面临770美元的亏损。若转向采购中东货源，每吨130美元的报价，也远超常规交易水平，使得企业利润空间被严重压缩，经营陷入困境。

According to data from Bloomberg, the PDH production capacity in East China of China surged from 7 million tons in 2019 to 22 million tons in 2024. Due to the high dependence on American raw materials, if calculated based on a 125% tariff, Chinese PDH enterprises will suffer a loss of 770 US dollars per ton when processing American propane. If China switches to sources in the Middle East, the quoted price is about 130 US dollars per ton, which is far beyond the normal transaction level, resulting in meager profits.

在此形势下，中国PDH行业被迫进入深度调整期。部分企业积极探索转型之路，通过原料多元化与工艺革新“双管齐下”的突围模式，试图打破发展困局。另一边，美国出口商因库存压力不断加剧，正加速开拓欧洲市场，并积极试探印度等新兴市场的承接能力。花旗方面消息显示，美国正通过长期合约锁定印度买家，试图构建新的三角贸易平衡格局，以化解当前的贸易困局 。

Faced with these challenges, China's PDH industry has been forced into a period of deep adjustment. Some companies are actively exploring transformation strategies, adopting a dual approach of feedstock diversification and technological innovation to break through the current predicament. Meanwhile, U.S. exporters, grappling with mounting inventory pressures, are accelerating efforts to penetrate European markets while probing the absorption capacity of emerging markets like India. Citigroup reports indicate that the U.S. is now securing long-term contracts with Indian buyers in an attempt to establish a new triangular trade balance and alleviate the ongoing trade crisis.

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